Will Google Android Overtake RIM in 2011?

How long will it be before Google Android assumes the #1 spot in smartphone market share? Would you have guessed that Google Android would pass Apple last year? Okay, maybe you would have.

The most recent data from comScore, in its December 2010 U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share research, reports that Android has maintained its #2 position with 28.7 percent market share – that’s a 7.3 percentage point increase versus September. RIM’s marketshare is only 31.6 percent – it’s realistic to assume that Google could take the number one spot by the end of the year, especially as more corporate IT departments get comfortable using the OS. Of course, you could say the same for Apple.

Then again, Apple still has 25 percent of the smart phone subscribers, and who knows how many new subscribers will go iPhone now that they can get one on a more reliable network? There could be a lot of Android users who will go iPhone now that they can. It will be an interesting race for market share dominance in Q1 and Q2 for sure.

I suppose it’s worth mentioning Microsoft has 8.4 percent and Palm has 3.7 percent market share. Should banks and credit unions support those programs? That’s a topic for another post. For now, let’s just say we don’t expect either of those platforms to be in the top three anytime soon.

Then Again, There’s More Market to Share

While the popularity of devices can cause quick shifts in smartphone OS market share, so too can increased smartphone usage period. According to comScore’s research, 63.2 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in December 2010 – that’s up 60 percent over a year ago. 60 percent. That’s a lot of consumers ditching their feature phones for a smartphone. We expect more of the same in 2011.

Could increased smartphone usage and the Verizon iPhone increase mobile banking usage in 2011? We think so. Consumers use text and mobile Web more than any other features on their phones, it’s to be expected that they will use these features for more convenience like self-service banking via a mobile device.

What do you think? Will Google Android become the #1 smartphone OS in 2011? Why or why not? Please share your thoughts below.

(Source: comScore, U.S. Mobile Subscriber Market Share, December 2010. For more information, please visit http://www.comscore.com. Image Credit: Finance Behavior).

  • Anonymous

    I think RIM has already lost the race against Android and iPhone. With very few exceptions, all the Blackberry owners I know are looking to move to either Android or iPhone for their next device. The only thing holding most of them back is their IT group. As soon as that changes I think RIM is going to be lucky to compete for the crumbs left behind by WinMo and HP.

  • Anonymous

    As a die-hard RIM user, I can tell you that my BlackBerry Torch is the best ever, and to me still superior to the iPhone as a “work phone”, but that in all likelihood it will also be the last BlackBerry I own. RIM is too beholden to its corporate roots to understand that even the business market is now driven by consumer taste.

  • Jeremy Porter

    Rodney makes a good point. Most of the people with BlackBerries have them because the IT department doesn’t have any iPhones to give out.

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